Blog de Javier Ferrer

Desgraciadamente Venezuela no tiene solución. Socialismo 2.0 a la latinoamericana. No sólo no funciona nada, sino que Caracas ha conseguido la mención honorífica como ciudad más violenta del mundo. El número de homicidios por cada 100.000 habitantes es mayor que en lugares tan pacíficos como Irak, Afganistán o algunas ciudades famosas por su tranquilidad como Rio de Janeiro.

Eso sí, la culpa de todos los males – al margen de consideraciones ideológicas -  no es la mala gestión propia, no, el no tener electricidad, la violencia, la corrupción, el clientelismo, la decadencia de todas las infraestructuras, la inflación, la falta de alimentos, no son causadas por decisiones autóctonas, o falta de ellas, no, son siempre el imperio estadounidense y esos colombianos malucos que están constantemente conspirando contra la Revolución. ¿Será que aún existen personas en el mundo que no se han dado cuenta de los resultados de todos los comunismos del pasado?

Si hay algún venezolano por ahi me gustaría conocer vuestra experiencia de vida, tanto si vivís en el país como si estáis expatriados. Un abrazo a todos.

STRATFOR’s founder and CEO discusses the push for space-based energy infrastructure after EADS, Europe’s largest space company, announces plans to launch a test satellite with solar panels.

Here I include an interesting news article regarding the energy crunch we are facing everywhere now, and which will get worse as time passes. Bold is used to highlight important ideas.

Source: South China Morning Post. 13/02/2008

Afresh assessment of Asia’s energy outlook asserts that the region, along with the United States, is being confronted with a “daunting challenge” as oil consumption rises much faster than production and the end of the world’s oil supply is in sight.

According to Asia’s Energy Future, published by the East-West Centre, a US-government-funded research and educational institute in Honolulu: “Today, the challenge of energy security is greater than ever. The days of cheap and plentiful oil are over. World oil production is likely to reach a peak some time in the next 10 to 15 years.” It will level off and decline after that.

The principal authors, Fereidun Fesharaki and Kang Wu, warn: “Coupled with emerging supply limitations, the Asia-Pacific region’s increasing demand for oil raises fears of tensions among Asian nations and between Asia and the west.”Frederick Smith, chief executive of FedEx, the world’s largest express-transport company with 700 aircraft and 80,000 trucks, is more pointed. He wrote in Newsweek: “It shouldn’t be forgotten that the proximate cause of World War II was the US oil embargo against Japan ? The first gulf war was caused totally by oil – it was Saddam Hussein’s insistence that he owned certain oilfields that led to his invasion of Kuwait and our ouster of his forces there”. What he calls “the subsequent presence” of the US in the Middle East, evidently meaning Iraq, has been driven by oil. He says some analysts think 40 per cent of US military spending goes to protecting the oil trade.

Competition for energy in Asia, even more than the confrontations between North and South Korea, mainland China and Taiwan, and India and Pakistan could be the cause of hostilities across the region. Asia’s Energy Future points to the obvious cause of increased oil consumption: economic growth. Since 1900, more than half of the annual growth in global oil consumption has originated in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2004, “China alone accounted for nearly one-third of the growth in oil consumption in the entire world”. India was not far behind, the book says, “and this pattern is projected to continue”. The demand is “driven primarily by the growing number of motor vehicles”.

Half of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East, while India is even more dependent on these sources. That is not likely to change, which gives Beijing and New Delhi reason to dip into the power politics of that already volatile region.Both nations, the book says, are experiencing “a renewed emphasis on hydro-power and nuclear energy”. Hydropower in China accounted for 3 per cent of the nation’s energy in 1980 and is expected to rise to 8 per cent by 2015. The famed – and controversial – Three Gorges hydroelectric plant is scheduled to be completed next year at an enormous cost in funds, displaced people and submerged cultural treasures.

China appears to have lagged behind in nuclear energy, producing only 1 per cent of the nation’s needs in 1993. It plans to raise that to 4 per cent by 2020. In India, hydroelectric capacity provided 26 per cent of installed power capacity in 2005 but has not kept up with demand. Nuclear power accounted for only 3 per cent but is expected to double this year. To counter these trends in oil production and consumption, the East-West Centre researchers say that “business as usual is not an option”.

They recommend policies that reduce price volatility, such as building strategic oil reserves; and that bring a better balance between supply and demand, such as reducing bottlenecks in transport. The authors call on political leaders in the US, the world’s largest consumer of energy, and the Asia-Pacific region “to make bold and profound changes”.

They insist: “half measures are not enough, and they may even make the situation worse.”Richard Halloran is a former New York Times foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington

As I promised, here is the second part of the fantastic documentary about oil and climate change. If you reached this page directly, you can find the first half of the documentary in my previous post. It is a very well produced documentary and interesting for anyone who wants to learn more about this relevant topic.

The End of Oil Part IV

The End of Oil Part V

The End of Oil Part VI

I hope it was instructive. Although I want to be positive, but facts point to a world were we will have to reduce our energy consumption drastically and our lifestyles will forever change.

- Javier Ferrer – www.javierferrer.com – www.javierferrer.net

Since my last post yesterday regarding Peak Oil I have received several emails from readers around the world asking me what Peak Oil means. I have been trying to find a good video that explains succintly what Peak Oil is and its implications to our lives. To put it in a few words, the world is going to face an irreversible decline in output of oil while at the same time demand expands. There is simply not going to be enough oil to power our economy in the future. Energy will became scarcer and substitutes will not be able to offset the decline of oil.

I have more than a dozen books covering the oil industry in detail, some of them journalistic in their approach, others more technical and dense. Although reading a good book is the best possible introduction in detail (see my previous post), for newcomers to this topic watching a 1 hour video describing the history of oil and what peak oil is can be the best introduction to this unreported reality.

Certainly, the way we live today in 2008, and how everything is going to change in the coming decades is a drama that few media cover although there is a wide consensus among industry experts that there is little doubt we are going to have to get used to more expensive oil and energy prices, more expensive food, resources wars, and probably a population collapse. With energy becoming more scarce, as well as food, I doubt our little planet can sustain the lives of 9 billion human beings.

I do not know if I will see the full extent of the crisis, since the hardest part will come in the 2030-2050 timeframe and maybe by that time I am no longer here, but for sure, if I have kids one day, they will have to live in a vastly different world from the one we have experienced in the late 20th, early 21st century.

Here you can watch the first half of a very well produced documentary regarding Oil. Its brilliant and pedagogic. I recommend you to watch it to understand better the critical importance of oil to everything we know and that we take for granted.

The End of Oil Part I 

The End of Oil Part II

The End of Oil Part III

Tomorrow I will post the second part of this article. Any comments are certainly appreciated. Feel free to write in English, French, Spanish, Portuguese or Italian. I promise to reply to your comments or requests.

- Javier Ferrer – www.javierferrer.com – www.javierferrer.net -

One of the most prolific writers in the Peak Oil movement is Richard Heinberg. He is the author of one of the best books written about peak oil and its consequences for our lives in a world were oil is becoming a precious commodity. A scarce energy source that will continue to trigger resource wars as the main powers (USA, China, Russia, EU) fight for the control of the last supplies directly or through proxy wars.

If you had to buy only one book I would definitely recommend you to read The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies. After reading it you will understand much better the dynamics of energy and why oil has been, is, and will continue to be at the center stage of realpolitiks and international relations.

For people familiar with the subject I am sure you will find Richard Heinberg’s interview interesting. And for those of you new to this topic, I reckon this interview will be very instructive. If you can devote 15 minutes to enlighten yourself, I deeply recommend you to watch this interview to understand a bit better the world we live in.

Richard Heinberg Interview Part I

Richard Heinberg Interview Part II

- Javier Ferrer – www.javierferrer.com – www.javierferrer.net -